NFC South Fantasy Football Breakdown
The NFC South is loaded with offensive talent and is a goldmine for fantasy football. In this article I will be breaking down each team with in-depth analysis of each player that I believe will be fantasy relevant for the upcoming season.
Atlanta Falcons:
Notable players: Michael Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Last season Bijan Robinson was the RB3 in FPPG and I believe he has RB1 overall upside this season. In the three games with Michael Penix Jr. as the starter Robinson averaged 26.8 FPPG. The Falcons offense averaged 32 points per game with Penix Jr. starting and I believe the offense could field a top 5 unit this season.
Drake London was the WR21 over the full season, but in the three games with Penix London averaged 23.1 FPPG, which was tied for first in that span and would have ranked second behind only Ja’Marr Chase’s 23.1 FPPG on the season. London and Penix formed a quick connection, as Penix hadn’t thrown to any of the starting skill players prior to his first start for the Falcons. I believe London can be a top 12 receiver this season with top 5 upside.
Below are all of London’s targets form Michael Penix Jr. weeks 16 through 18 last season.
Darnell Mooney had arguably his best season as a pro putting up 995 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. He would have easily went over 1,000 yards, but he missed the final game of the season due to an injury. I believe Mooney can be a fairly consistent low-end WR2 for fantasy football.
Everybody wants Kyle Pitts to be a thing and hopefully this is the year he finally lives up to his draft hype. This will be the first season that he has gone into the season with the same quarterback he finished the prior season with. I believe this is a prove-it year for Pitts. I think he has top 12 upside at the position with a ceiling of top 5-7 range. He hasn’t looked like the same player since his rookie season with Matt Ryan throwing him the ball, but maybe with Michael Penix Jr. in the fold he will have life again.
Carolina Panthers:
Notable players: Bryce Young, Tetairoa McMillan, Adam Thielen, Chuba Hubbard
Bryce Young looked like he was on the verge of not playing another down for the Carolina Panthers last season after he was benched for Andy Dalton. Dalton unfortunately got into a car accident which thrusted Young back into the starting lineup and he showed a glimpse of why he was the 1st overall selection the year prior. Young has all of the tools to be a successful quarterback in the NFL and his head coach believes in him. I think Young can be a low-end QB1 or a high end QB2 this season.
The Panthers selected Tetairoa McMillan with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft. McMillan is arguably the best wide receiver in this class and he is automatically the WR1 on the roster. I believe McMillan can be a high-end WR2 with WR1 spike weeks. The WR2 on the team is more than likely Adam Thielen, who averaged 14.5 FPPG last year, which was only .5 points behind everyone’s favorite 2nd year player Ladd McConkey. I believe Thielen will be a WR3 or flex play with a few WR2 weekly games sprinkled in throughout the season. Good luck figuring out which weeks to start him though.
Jonathon Brooks was in line to be the starter for the Panthers, but unfortunately suffered another ACL injury. Chuba Hubbard stepped in and ran away with the job. Hubbard rushed for over 1,000 yards and had 10 rushing touchdowns. He was the RB13 in FPPG. Hubbard could easily be an RB1 this season and has top dark horse RB1 upside if Bryce Young takes another leap this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Notable players: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving
Baker Mayfield has revived his career in Tampa Bay. He was cast away from the team he helped bring relevancy to again in the Cleveland Browns and bounced around on a couple of teams before finding his home on the Bucs. Baker has shown that he is the real deal passing for over 4,000 yards and 25+ touchdowns the last two seasons with two different offensive coordinators. He was the QB5 in FPPG last season and he is a locked and loaded QB1 with an elite group of skill players.
Name a more dynamic duo than Mike Evans and 1,000 yard receiving seasons. You can’t. Evans has 11 straight seasons of over 1,000 yards recieiving. He is one of the best receivers in the NFL and was the WR10 in FPPG last season, but when Godwin was healthy last season Evans averaged seven less FPPG in the seven games that Godwin played in. I believe Evans will have WR1 weeks, but I believe that a healthy Chris Godwin is the best receiver on this team now. Evans is likely a WR2 for fantasy football purposes. Godwin has top 12 upside as a fantasy asset.
The Bucs selected Emeka Egbuka with the 19th overall pick in the first round of the draft. I believe this move is helping them prepare for when Evans retires in the next couple of seasons. Egbuka will probably have a couple of WR1 spike weeks, but with a healthy Evans and Godwin on the team Egbuka is likely third in the pecking order, if not fourth with 2nd year player Jalen McMillan showing he is a great option for Mayfield last season.
Bucky Irving was my RB1 last heading into the NFL draft and he showed that talent this past season. Irving didn’t fully takeover the backfield until week 12 of the regular season. He had played over 50% of the snaps in one game prior to week 12 and it was the game that Rachaad White missed. Weeks 12-18 Irving averaged 18.1 FPPG which would have ranked as the RB6 over the course of the full season. Irving is a locked and loaded RB1.
New Orleans Saints
Notable players: Tyler Shough, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson
In an unexpected turn of event Derek Carr retired because of an injury that was going to require him to miss significant time. The Saints in turn drafted Tyler Shough in the second round of this year’s NFL draft. Justin Herbert has been in the NFL since 2020 and Shough was on Oregon with Herbert, so that will let you know how old Shough is. The Saints are probably going to be in contention for the worst team in the NFL this year, so I don’t expect much out of Shough.
Alvin Kamara remains underrated. He has been a top 15 RB in FPPG every season he has been in the NFL. Kamara is an RB1 and will be until the wheels fall off.
Chris Olave has now suffered four confirmed concussions and he has only been in the NFL for three seasons. When Olave is on the field he is arguably a top 15 receiver in the league, but availability is the best ability. Olave is a low-end WR2 for fantasy. Rashid Shaheed is a great talent but he hasn’t been able to stay on the field either. He has also been in the league for three seasons and hasn’t played a full season in any of the years he has been in the league. I believe he is a WR3 or flex option.
NFC South Standings Prediction:
Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints