32ish Stats for 32 Teams
We are 20 days away from training camp, 35 days away from the NFL preseason kicking off, 58 days away from week 0 of college football, and 70 days away from the NFL regular season kicking off. Below I give you 32ish stats for all 32 teams in the NFL.
Atlanta Falcons - In the three games that Michael Penix Jr. started the Falcons averaged 32 PPG. Drake London averaged 23.1 FPPG and Bijan Robinson averaged 26.8 FPPG. The Falcons offense looks to be a gold mine this year with Penix Jr. under center.
Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr. finished with a 22% target share and 43% air yards share. As it says in the tweet below, Marvin Harrison is gonna be just fine.
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson is a cheat code against zone coverage. He averaged 0.63 fantasy points per drop back against man coverage, which ranked 1st last season. He ranked 8th against man coverage. Lamar was the QB1 in FPPG at 25.7 last season.
Buffalo Bills - Dalton Kincaid was 2nd in targets per route run last season and 4th in YAC per reception amongst tight ends. Maybe it’s a good time to buy Kincaid in your dynasty league.
Carolina Panthers - Bryce Young averaged 7.2 FPPG prior to being benched. After Andy Dalton got hurt in a car accident and Young was put back in the starting lineup he averaged 18.6 FPPG. Weeks 8-18 Young played pretty, pretty good.
Chicago Bears - Rome Odunze had 752 uncatchable air yards last season. The addition to Ben Johnson should take some heat off of Caleb Williams this year. Last season Williams ranked 27th in Pro Football Focus’ passing grade under pressure.
Cincinnati Bengals - Last season the Bengals defense ranked 25th in points allowed per game. Ja’Marr Chase was the WR1 in FPPG and Tee Higgins was the WR4 in FPPG. Trey Hendrickson hasn’t been extended and rookie Shemar Stewart still hasn’t signed his rookie contract. The defense could be a mess again this season, which means Chase and Tee may both finish top five again this season.
Cleveland Browns - Jerry Jeudy had a breakout year last season, but he actually didn’t fully breakout until after Cedric Tillman went down with an injury. Jeudy averaged 9.6 FPPG with Tillman on the field and 13.2 FPPG with him on the sideline.
Dallas Cowboys - Dak Prescott has been a QB1 in FPPG in every year he has played a full season. He has only not been a top 15 QB one time and it was during the 2024 season, where he only played in eight games because of a season ending hamstring injury he suffered in week nine.
Denver Broncos - Bo Nix was pretty, pretty good in goal-to-go situations during the 2024 season. Nix was the QB10 in FPPG this past season and he has the luxury of being in one of the best called offenses in the league under Sean Payton.
Below are all of Bo Nix’s passing touchdowns from this past season.
Detroit Lions - The Lions not only lost Ben Johnson this offseason, they also lost two interior offensive lineman. While I think he offense could take a step back, I believe they could still be a top 10 unit with how well Jared Goff plays under pressure. Goff ranked 6th in catchable ball rate under pressure in 2024, as you can see below.
Green Bay Packers - With a healthy Jordan Love on the field the Packers can yield one of the better offenses in the league. In 2023, when Love played the full season, he threw for 4,159 yards and 32 passing touchdowns. The Packers offense ranked 8th in points per game that season.
Houston Texans - There was a lot of meat left on the bone in the passing game last season. As you can see in the chart below, C.J. Stroud was 2nd in lost EPA to drops last season behind only Joe Burrow. I expect the passing offense to be better this season with a healthy Nico Collins and the addition of Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins.
Indianapolis Colts - Josh Downs had a 90th percentile success rate against man coverage last season. You can check out his full Reception Perception profile here. Downs was on pace to lead the Colts in targets, receptions and receiving yards last season if he hadn’t missed three games.
Jacksonville Jaguars - As you can see in the tweet below, Liam Coen had three players ranked in the top-12 in screen targets per game last season. Travis Hunter had 21 MTF last season, per PFF. He is a playmaker with the ball in his hands and he will see a good amount of opportunities to show that skillset off in the NFL with Coen calling plays.
Below are all of Trevor Lawrence’s passing touchdowns from last season.
Kansas City Chiefs - Weeks 1-3 before suffering an injury Rashee Rice was the WR2 in FPPG. Rice also averaged 17 FPPG weeks 10-18 of the 2023 season, which would have been good for the WR13. As you can see in the chart below, Rice is in pretty good company and these last two seasons appear not to be a fluke. It also helps that he has the best quarterback in the NFL passing him the ball.
Las Vegas Raiders - Geno Smith ranked 1st in on target percentage at 81.8% during the 2024 season. Gardner Minshew ranked 20th and Aidan O’Connell ranked 33rd. All Raiders pass catchers receive a boost with Smith now the starting signal caller for the Raiders.
Los Angles Chargers - Ladd McConkey was very good in his rookie season. He lead all rookies in YPRR, as you can see in the chart below. Three rookie WRs finished in the top 20 in FPPG last season.
Los Angles Rams - Puka Nacua was the WR5 in FPPG last season. The Rams added Davante Adams and shipped off Cooper Kupp, but I fully expect Nacua to continue being an elite wide receiver this season. As you can see from the tweet below, he is one of the best in the game right now.
Miami Dolphins - If we could wrap Tua Tagovailoa in something that would prevent him from getting concussions, that’d be great. Last season De’Von Achane averaged 22.4 FPPG in 11 games with Tua starting and 8.5 FPPG in the 6 games he was out with an injury. 22.4 FPPG would have been good for the overall RB1 last season.
Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings decided to move on from Sam Darnold and roll with their 2nd year quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Since 2018, McCarthy was the 2nd most improved in accurate throw percentage in his final collegiate season. McCarthy could be the final infinity stone for Kevin O’Connell’s offense.
Kevin O’Connell is one of the best play callers in the league.
New England Patriots - Drake Maye rushed for 421 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games last season. In the nine games that Maye played in at least 90% of the snaps his FPPG was good for QB11. Maye’s rushing ability provides a safe floor for fantasy football.
New Orleans Saints - Alvin Kamara has only rushed for 100 yards in 11 games in 8 years in the NFL. Below are his FPPG ranks in that span:
2024 - RB5
2023 - RB3
2022 - RB15
2021 - RB6
2020 - RB2
2019 - RB9
2018 - RB4
2017 - RB4
He is a locked and loaded RB1 because of his receiving skillset.
New York Giants - Malik Nabers is #good. As you can see below, Nabers had a very good target share and air yards share last season and now gets a slight quarterback upgrade with Russell Wilson likely being the starter for the Giants this season.
New York Jets - Justin Fields was a QB1 in three of his six starts last season. In those six starts he was the QB7 in FPPG. Fields reunites with his old college teammate Garrett Wilson and with his rushing floor he should easily be a QB1 for fantasy this year.
Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Hurts is an elite fantasy quarterback asset and in large because of his rushing floor. Last season 11 of his 14 rushing touchdowns were from the ‘tush push. Saquon Barkley was the RB1 in FPPG last season. Barkley was tackled at the 1-yard-line 11 times without scoring a touchdown, which leaves a door open for him to be even more of a valuable asset this year for fantasy
Below is every Jalen Hurts rushing and passing touchdown from last season.
Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers selected Roman Wilson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Last season he barely played because of sprained ankle and hamstring injuries. Wilson’s YPRR out of the slot his final collegiate season was 2.79, which ranked 6th in the class. The WR2 role in the Steelers offense is wide open and I expect Roman Wilson to take full advantage of the opportunity.
San Francisco 49ers - Brock Purdy has finished as the QB9 and QB6 in FPPG the last two seasons. It appears the 49ers will have a fully healthy Christian McCaffrey this season and a healthy CMC is good for any offense. Purdy currently has an ADP of QB14 and he should easily smash that value. Brock Purdy remains underrated.
Seattle Seahawks - Kenneth Walker III was the RB12 in FPPG last season. He has a current ADP of RB16. Walker had the 3rd highest running grade, per PPF. He has the ability to be the RB1 in FPPG, but can he stay on the field for that to happen? Walker hasn’t finished a full season during his NFL career.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans was the WR9 in FPPG last season, but he was on pace to be the WR42 with Chris Godwin on the field. Evans currently has an ADP of WR20 and the Buccaneers just drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round. I believe with a healthy Godwin, Egbuka and Jalen McMillan that Evans will not be a WR1 this season.
Tennessee Titans - Calvin Ridley was the WR41 in FPPG last season, but weeks 10-18 was the WR30. He was plagued by awful quarterback play. Will Levis ranked 24th in on target percentage. Cam Ward was 1st in PFF’s offensive grade and 2nd in passing grade this past season. Ward is an upgrade at quarterback for Ridley. On throws of 20+ yards in 2024 Ward was 34/75 for 1,148 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. Ridley had an ADOT of 16.0 this past season.
Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels was arguably the best quarterback in his draft class last season. He won OROY and led his team to their first NFC Championship berth since 1991. As you can see in the chart below, Daniels had one of the best quarterback seasons for a rookie. Daniels was the QB4 in FPPG. He is a locked and loaded QB1 for fantasy in all formats.
Below are all of Jayden Daniels passing touchdowns last season.
NFL Division Winners Predictions:
NFC North - Minnesota Vikings
NFC South - Atlanta Falcons
NFC East - Washington Commanders
NFC West - San Francisco 49ers
AFC North - Baltimore Ravens
AFC South - Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC East - Buffalo Bills
AFC West - Kansas City Chiefs
NFL Awards Winners Predictions:
MVP - Patrick Mahomes
OPOY - Bijan Robinson
DPOY - Myles Garrett
OROY - Cam Ward
DROY - Jalon Walker
CBPOY - Chris Godwin
POY - Lane Johnson
Coach of the Year - Raheem Morris
Assistant Coach of the Year - Joe Brady
Executive of the Year - Adam Peters